A new poll shows that the Conservatives are set for a ‘wipeout’ in Wales and Scotland, with analysis showing that in the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe constituency the battle for the general election will be between Labour candidate Matthew Dorrance and Conservative candidate Fay Jones.

The poll, run by Best for Britain, and accessed here, is a multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) which is a way of producing estimates of opinion and attitudes for small defined geographic areas. It works by combining information from large national samples (for example tens of thousands of respondents) with ONS and census data. The fieldwork, from the 8th to the 22nd of March shows that it sampled 15,029 people.

A new poll shows that the Conservatives are set for a ‘wipeout’ in Wales and Scotland, with analysis showing that in the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe constituency the battle for the general election will be between Labour’s local candidate Matthew Dorrance and Tory candidate Fay Jones.
A new poll shows that the Conservatives are set for a ‘wipeout’ in Wales and Scotland, with analysis showing that in the new Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe constituency the battle for the general election will be between Labour’s local candidate Matthew Dorrance and Tory candidate Fay Jones. (Best for Britain)

This new mega poll and MRP analysis was carried out by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain and went into the field shortly after the Chancellor’s Budget.

The poll and MRP constituency-level analysis shows that under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives are on track to return just 98 MPs at the next election.

In Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe, the mega poll and MRP shows the contest to be one between Labour and Conservatives. The new constituency is made up of Brecon and Radnorshire and a large part of the former Neath constituency, which has returned a Labour MP for over a hundred years.

This new mega poll and MRP analysis was carried out by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain and went into the field shortly after the Chancellor’s Budget.
This new mega poll and MRP analysis was carried out by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain and went into the field shortly after the Chancellor’s Budget. (Best for Britain)

The new boundaries and up-to-date scientific data all point to the election being close in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe.

Matthew Dorrance said: “We now know that only Labour can stop the Tories in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Voting for any other party will only let the Tories sneak back in.

“I am taking nothing for granted and I will work hard through this campaign to earn the trust of voters in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe and help deliver the change our country needs.

“The polling is clear. The choice is between a hardworking local Labour MP for Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe and a change of government, or more failure and decline with the Tories.”